Colin's Financial Pages


These pages focus on financial topics such as the risk of catastrophic banking and financial failures, a future Great Depression, Brown's gold sale losses, the price of oil, debt and inflation.

Hot News

It’s Repo Madness - by Harry S. Dent, FxStreet (15th Jan 2020)
"...look out if this repo crisis and stock market continues to run full speed, as it is currently. A 40%+ crash could be coming sooner rather than later..."

A Stock Market Crash Is Lurking Around the Corner - by Harsh Chauhan, CCN (14th Jan 2020)
"Consensus estimates project a 2.6% annual decline in the S&P 500’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2019. If that happens, it would mark the fourth straight quarter of annual declines. That’s bad news for the stock market as the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings multiple has now increased to 19, Barron’s reports"

Brit banking sector hasn't gone a single day of 2020 without something breaking - by Richard Speed, The Register (3rd Jan 2020)
"...customers checked their accounts this morning to find expected payments not turning up... three hours later ... their expected payments continued to be absent"

Furious Yorkshire Bank customers complain their wages haven't gone into their accounts (3rd Jan 2020)
"Yorkshire Bank customers are reporting not receiving their scheduled wages
Website Down Detector notes hundreds of complaints of problems with the bank
It is claimed that the money issues are related to an 'IT problem' with the service"

Lloyds, Halifax and Bank of Scotland online banking CRASH on New Year’s Day bringing misery to thousands (1st Jan 2020)
"The Down Detector website reported thousands of users unable to access online and mobile banking from around 4am. And customers of the three banks complained of the outage of social media this morning"

European banks issue record €100bn of ‘bail-in’ debt in 2019 (December 30, 2019)
"European lenders have issued about €100bn of new “bail-in” debt in 2019 to meet tougher post-crisis rules designed to protect taxpayers from footing the bill for future bank failures."

A 10% to 20% pullback could strike stocks early next year, long-time bull Ed Yardeni warns (December 29, 2019)
"[A] 10% to 20% [correction] would be quite possible if this market [S&P 500] gets to 3,500 well ahead of my schedule," he said.

An Epic Stock Market Crash Is Looming, Analysts Warn (December 29, 2019)
"Guggenheim Partners’ Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd... says the Fed’s easy-money policies over the past year have helped pump markets full of liquidity. This has created an environment comparable to that of 1998, when a 45-day correction shaved nearly 20% off the S&P 500."

Moody’s warns on frothy US junk bond market - Adam Samson, FT, 20th December, 2019
US junk bonds may fall “significantly” after a rally this year that has left the riskier end of the corporate bond market in a perilous state, Moody’s has warned.

Sweden fears it may have created a negative-rates monster - Katie Martin, FT, 20th December, 2019

Sweden's central bank, once enthusiastic about using negative interest rates, has put them back at zero. They see "negative effects". The FT article quotes Citigroup analyst Tiia Lehto saying that this "strengthens the notion that zero truly is a lower bound in other advanced economies, including the US, UK and Australia". Those people who may have thought there was plenty of room for central bankers to cut, cut and cut again in the pursuit of ultra-easy money may find that there is no such room.


So you think the banking crisis is over? Sorry to spoil your Christmas! - Graham Bishop, euractiv.com, 19th December, 2019
"The stock market is flashing ever-stronger orange about the health of Europe’s banks. Yet the regulatory community tells us good news about its capital strength – despite unsustainably low profitability..."

Gundlach: Corporate Credit Meltdown May Spark the Next Financial Crisis, Pt. 1 - Yahoo, 19th December 2019
"There won't be any idea of addressing these leverage ratios. They're just going to get a lot worse when the recession comes. And you're going to see en masse downgradings of the investment-grade corporate bond market."

Repo risks still hang over upbeat end to year in markets - FT, 18th December 2019 [Subscriber]
"The central bank also acted forcefully to forestall the danger of another upset in the US “repo” market, almost doubling its interventions to $490bn..."

World's largest hedge fund Bridgewater reportedly has big bet on market crash - Stephen Gandel, CBS News, 22nd November, 2019
"...could create a big windfall for the fund and its investors if the stock market were to plunge before the end of March..."
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